【王涵,宏观】A股的制造业升级:韩国的经验

作者: 王涵
近日消息称,“国家制造强国领导小组”将于近期组建,这意味着“中国制造2025”战略推进将全面提速,制造业升级无疑将成为未来A股市场持续关注的核心题材。为此,继回顾日本经验之后,我们接着分析韩国90年代制造业升级的经验,以期获得一些借鉴。

【王涵,宏观】A股的制造业升级:韩国的经验

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摘要:

近日消息称,“国家制造强国领导小组”将于近期组建,这意味着“中国制造2025”战略推进将全面提速,制造业转型升级无疑将成为未来A股市场持续关注的核心题材。为此,继回顾了日本经验之后,我们接着分析韩国90年代制造业转型升级的经验,以期为我国提供一些借鉴。

1)1989-1992年,人力成本上升倒逼韩国进入转型调整期;

2)转型期间,企业经历去杠杆、去产能过程;

3)产业政策调整,向发展核心技术倾斜;

4)转型成功后,企业盈利回升,出口结构优化,制造业得到升级。

人力成本上升倒逼转型

1985-1988年间,韩国处于“三低景气”中,即受益于当时低汇率(广场协议迫使日元升值)、低利率、低油价的环境。但自1987年开始,韩国经济开始面临多方面的挑战:

1) “三低景气”中出口上升增加了对外贸易摩擦

2) 人力成本快速上升。1987 年,韩国国内爆发的劳工纠纷,工资水平开始以两位数增长;

3) 利率飙升。韩国于1988 年12 月宣布了一揽子利率自由化措施,使得利率飙升,企业利息负担加重;



企业去产能、去杠杆

在高利率、高人力成本的环境下,韩国企业盈利能力迅速下滑,企业被迫开始去产能、去杠杆的过程,产能同比增速由1988年18.54%的高位迅速下滑至1990年的3.6%,设备类投资增速在这一时期也出现负增长。


产业政策向发展核心技术倾斜

从90年代后期,韩国由对重点行业的政策贷款支持转向R&D;部门,对R&D;的支持程度超过美国;同时放开FDI,以引进国外技术;推行经济自由化,丢弃对大企业破产的隐性保护

产业政策的调整在韩国的制造业升级过程中扮演了重要角色,也是所有转型国家的必经之路。然而,这类政策多大程度上可以取得成效,并表现出转型驱动作用,还需要其他因素的辅助。政策的连续性即是其中之一,相比较东南亚国家,韩国政治局势的稳定性与政府决策机制的独立性是政策连续性的基础,从而维护了产业政策迁移对实体经济的作用力度



转型后,企业盈利回升,出口结构优化

1992年后,经历了转型调整的韩国企业盈利、经济同步回升。同时,出口结构发生显著变化:

1)低附加值制造业在全球出口总额中的占比大幅度下降,逐步发生向东南亚国家的转移;

2) 电力设备等行业,成为后起之秀,在韩国工业中的地位逐步提升,经济增加值中占比扩大;

3) 高科技制造业延续膨胀趋势,制造业整体技术含量提升




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