【王涵,宏观】A股的制造业升级:韩国的经验

作者: 王涵
近日消息称,“国家制造强国领导小组”将于近期组建,这意味着“中国制造2025”战略推进将全面提速,制造业升级无疑将成为未来A股市场持续关注的核心题材。为此,继回顾日本经验之后,我们接着分析韩国90年代制造业升级的经验,以期获得一些借鉴。

【王涵,宏观】A股的制造业升级:韩国的经验

提示 点击上方 " XYMACRO " 订阅本刊

摘要:

近日消息称,“国家制造强国领导小组”将于近期组建,这意味着“中国制造2025”战略推进将全面提速,制造业转型升级无疑将成为未来A股市场持续关注的核心题材。为此,继回顾了日本经验之后,我们接着分析韩国90年代制造业转型升级的经验,以期为我国提供一些借鉴。

1)1989-1992年,人力成本上升倒逼韩国进入转型调整期;

2)转型期间,企业经历去杠杆、去产能过程;

3)产业政策调整,向发展核心技术倾斜;

4)转型成功后,企业盈利回升,出口结构优化,制造业得到升级。

人力成本上升倒逼转型

1985-1988年间,韩国处于“三低景气”中,即受益于当时低汇率(广场协议迫使日元升值)、低利率、低油价的环境。但自1987年开始,韩国经济开始面临多方面的挑战:

1) “三低景气”中出口上升增加了对外贸易摩擦

2) 人力成本快速上升。1987 年,韩国国内爆发的劳工纠纷,工资水平开始以两位数增长;

3) 利率飙升。韩国于1988 年12 月宣布了一揽子利率自由化措施,使得利率飙升,企业利息负担加重;



企业去产能、去杠杆

在高利率、高人力成本的环境下,韩国企业盈利能力迅速下滑,企业被迫开始去产能、去杠杆的过程,产能同比增速由1988年18.54%的高位迅速下滑至1990年的3.6%,设备类投资增速在这一时期也出现负增长。


产业政策向发展核心技术倾斜

从90年代后期,韩国由对重点行业的政策贷款支持转向R&D;部门,对R&D;的支持程度超过美国;同时放开FDI,以引进国外技术;推行经济自由化,丢弃对大企业破产的隐性保护

产业政策的调整在韩国的制造业升级过程中扮演了重要角色,也是所有转型国家的必经之路。然而,这类政策多大程度上可以取得成效,并表现出转型驱动作用,还需要其他因素的辅助。政策的连续性即是其中之一,相比较东南亚国家,韩国政治局势的稳定性与政府决策机制的独立性是政策连续性的基础,从而维护了产业政策迁移对实体经济的作用力度



转型后,企业盈利回升,出口结构优化

1992年后,经历了转型调整的韩国企业盈利、经济同步回升。同时,出口结构发生显著变化:

1)低附加值制造业在全球出口总额中的占比大幅度下降,逐步发生向东南亚国家的转移;

2) 电力设备等行业,成为后起之秀,在韩国工业中的地位逐步提升,经济增加值中占比扩大;

3) 高科技制造业延续膨胀趋势,制造业整体技术含量提升




参与评论
收藏
qrcode
写评论

icon-emoji表情
\n \n
\n
\n
\n
\n","content_short":"近日消息称,“国家制造强国领导小组”将于近期组建,这意味着“中国制造2025”战略推进将全面提速,制造业升级无疑将成为未来A股市场持续关注的核心题材。为此,继回顾日本经验之后,我们接着分析韩国90年代制造业升级的经验,以期获得一些借鉴。","display_time":1433340608,"id":232740,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/content_default_36.jpg","is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","membership_uri":"","next":{"id":218917,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/57/b3/0c/bn-hk677-0316cm-j-20150316101552.jpg","title":"EIA原油库存连续五周减少 油价先涨后跌","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/218917"},"pageviews":79,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":218914,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/43/aa/0d/w020120530608547289414.jpg","title":"德拉吉重申QE计划不变 欧元大涨 德债走低","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/218914"},"related_articles":[],"related_themes":[],"related_topics":[],"source_name":"","source_uri":"","symbols":[],"tags":[],"themes":[],"title":"【王涵,宏观】A股的制造业升级:韩国的经验","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":0,"is_starred":false}},"[\"https://ugapi.wallstreetcn.com/apiv1/hot_word/page/list\",{\"app_id\":\"wscn\",\"page_url\":\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/232740\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[],"total_count":0,"next_cursor":""}},"[\"https://ugapi.wallstreetcn.com/apiv1/hot_word/related/list\",{\"app_id\":\"wscn\",\"page_url\":\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/232740\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[],"total_count":0,"next_cursor":""}},"[\"/baike/entry/hot_list\",{\"limit\":20}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[{"id":335,"title":"央票出海","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/335"},{"id":329,"title":"人造肉","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/329"},{"id":333,"title":"三档两优","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/333"},{"id":16,"title":"利率并轨","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/16"},{"id":67,"title":"死猫反弹","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/67"},{"id":242,"title":"霍华德·马克斯","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/242"},{"id":286,"title":"金融供给侧结构性改革","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/baike/entries/286"}]}},"[\"/content/articles/hot\",{\"period\":\"all\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"day_items":[{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558084430,"display_user_id":154168,"id":3530716,"pageviews":180137,"source_uri":"","title":"财务造假坐实,康美药业果真拿钱去炒股了!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530716"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558133430,"display_user_id":120000002314,"id":3530708,"is_in_vip_privilege":true,"pageviews":71293,"source_uri":"","title":"华为!华为!华为!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3530708?layout=wscn-layout","vip_type":"gold","vip_uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/vip/articles/3530708"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558080919,"display_user_id":100000350111,"id":3530519,"pageviews":55192,"source_uri":"","title":"恒生指数失守28000点,A50跌超1.5%,人民币短线拉升","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530519"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558096530,"display_user_id":120000001236,"id":3530936,"pageviews":54020,"source_uri":"","title":"央行一季度货币政策执行报告:未来一段时间物价存在不确定性 保持人民币汇率弹性 ","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530936"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558128073,"display_user_id":100000379170,"id":3530933,"pageviews":52775,"source_uri":"","title":"“小蓝杯”瑞幸咖啡上市首日飙涨50%后涨幅砍半 对手星巴克创史上最高","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530933"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558104902,"display_user_id":120000003928,"id":3530963,"pageviews":50631,"source_uri":"","title":"美股迅速转涨 华为供应商普跌 百度跌15% 老虎证券高位回落75%","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530963"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558076506,"display_user_id":120000002144,"id":3530440,"pageviews":47023,"source_uri":"","title":"沪指周线四连阴 创业板大跌3.5% 国产芯片逆势收涨","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530440"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558118779,"display_user_id":75,"id":3531047,"pageviews":44071,"source_uri":"","title":"特朗普关税“紧箍”松动!美国取消对加拿大和墨西哥钢铝征税","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3531047"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558091666,"display_user_id":120000003447,"id":3530860,"pageviews":37114,"source_uri":"","title":"报告:英特尔夺回半导体厂商第一位置 华为海思营收增长最快","uri":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3530860?from=wscn"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558095814,"display_user_id":120000003591,"id":3530864,"pageviews":35771,"source_uri":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3530864&read_model=false&target_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fawtmt.com%2Farticles%2F3530864%3Ffrom%3Dwscn","title":"外企程序员的“黑暗时刻”","uri":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3530864?from=wscn"}],"week_items":[{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558052362,"display_user_id":100000350101,"id":3530371,"pageviews":987544,"source_uri":"","title":"华为海思致员工信:多年备胎一夜转“正”,今后要科技自立!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530371"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557749300,"display_user_id":705666,"id":3527745,"pageviews":365323,"source_uri":"","title":"国务院关税税则委员会发布公告决定对原产于美国的部分进口商品提高加征关税税率","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3527745"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1558084430,"display_user_id":154168,"id":3530716,"pageviews":180137,"source_uri":"","title":"财务造假坐实,康美药业果真拿钱去炒股了!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3530716"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557803010,"display_user_id":100001377409,"id":3528131,"pageviews":151129,"source_uri":"","title":"摩根大通:美股大跌来得太不是时候","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3528131"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557871527,"display_user_id":100000330115,"id":3528753,"pageviews":145042,"source_uri":"","title":"美股大反弹 大豆期货大涨 比特币跌穿7800美元 区块链概念股大涨后收跌 人造肉第一股大涨14%","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3528753"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557760930,"display_user_id":120000002330,"id":3527826,"pageviews":132321,"source_uri":"","title":"美股血流成河!三大指数均跌超2% 纳指跌3% VIX暴涨30% ","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3527826"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557968279,"display_user_id":100001705778,"id":3529647,"pageviews":121213,"source_uri":"","title":"绝不是危言耸听!全球贸易惨状已经堪比金融危机","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3529647"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557846501,"display_user_id":120000003928,"id":3528491,"pageviews":112526,"source_uri":"","title":"隐瞒577亿港元债务? 李嘉诚家族旗下长和被沽空机构盯上","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3528491"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557811979,"display_user_id":120000002220,"id":3528172,"pageviews":105407,"source_uri":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3528172&read_model=false&target_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fawtmt.com%2Farticles%2F3528172%3Ffrom%3Dwscn","title":"马云、刘强东、雷军背后的犹太男人 七年拿下中国互联网半壁江山","uri":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3528172?from=wscn"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1557928289,"display_user_id":154168,"id":3529488,"pageviews":101758,"source_uri":"","title":"A股夜报 | 风向转变,大佬们都出来打猎了","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3529488"}]}},"[\"/commentv2/232740/comments\",{\"type\":\"article\",\"reply_count_limit\":3,\"limit\":5,\"is_hot\":false,\"cursor\":\"\",\"time_desc\":true,\"like_sort\":\"\"},{\"noCacheWhenLogin\":true}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":null,"next_cursor":"","total_count":0}},"[\"/commentv2/232740/comments\",{\"type\":\"article\",\"reply_count_limit\":3,\"is_hot\":true},{\"noCacheWhenLogin\":true}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":null,"next_cursor":"","total_count":0}},"[\"/content/articles/relateddata/232740\",null,{\"noCacheWhenLogin\":true}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"comment_count":0,"like":{"like_count":0,"unlike_count":0,"user_like":""},"related_articles":[{"author":{"avatar":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/befbcbdb-6031-41e1-b744-a2c1a0d1a800","display_name":"阿星","id":120000001978},"content_short":"此轮制造业投资增速高点已过,2019年处于下行阶段。此轮制造业利润复苏始于2016年,按照历史经验,2017年制造业投资应该出现明显回升。然而,受供","display_time":1557569410,"id":3526976,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/content_default_57.jpg","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"国金宏观边泉水团队","source_uri":"","title":"2019年制造业投资何去何从? ——基于利润与产能的制造业投资分析框架","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3526976","use_default_image":true},{"author":{"avatar":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me//d7/a7/37/img-0175.jpg","display_name":"张澄","id":51},"content_short":"从遍地新城到大都市化——长三角一体化的影响和国际经验(中泰宏观 梁中华)","display_time":1557799346,"id":3528102,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/2c311f4c-73c9-4194-b987-a9f2cf9702c9","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"梁中华宏观研究","source_uri":"","title":"从遍地新城到大都市化——长三角一体化的影响和国际经验","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3528102","use_default_image":false},{"author":{"avatar":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/519ca246-9000-41de-a46e-f7f01edb45b4","display_name":"linjietong@wallstreetcn.com","id":120000003992},"content_short":"本文来源:和讯期货 (ID:hexun_futures),作者:升级打怪的小师妹\n\n \n我4月份是看...","display_time":1557227504,"id":3524240,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/content_default_38.jpg","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"和讯期货","source_uri":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3524240&read_model=false&target_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%3F__biz%3DMjM5NjMxNzgyMw%3D%3D%26mid%3D2653449564%26idx%3D4%26sn%3Dc9f25b163f12d9d346f9ce280d7f03ae%26chksm%3Dbd37d24c8a405b5a866a6e366e3e8663bbf4cd57d34ff730121b37841718ddc993b81f92c97d%26scene%3D0%26xtrack%3D1%23rd","title":"我是跟随季节性和基本面做豆棕价差的——交易经验分享","url":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3524240&read_model=false&target_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%3F__biz%3DMjM5NjMxNzgyMw%3D%3D%26mid%3D2653449564%26idx%3D4%26sn%3Dc9f25b163f12d9d346f9ce280d7f03ae%26chksm%3Dbd37d24c8a405b5a866a6e366e3e8663bbf4cd57d34ff730121b37841718ddc993b81f92c97d%26scene%3D0%26xtrack%3D1%23rd","use_default_image":true},{"author":{"avatar":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/befbcbdb-6031-41e1-b744-a2c1a0d1a800","display_name":"阿星","id":120000001978},"content_short":"2014年,地产如狗。\n2015年,钢铁如狗。\n2018年,制造业如狗。","display_time":1555730804,"id":3514795,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/a3174e7e-ed85-460b-960f-dd35182710a8","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"奔波儿霸研究室","source_uri":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3514795&read_model=false&target_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%3F__biz%3DMzA3MjkwNjE2Nw%3D%3D%26mid%3D2455141333%26idx%3D1%26sn%3D224fcd0dc58abf5cf7fa8e06d9444c3d%26chksm%3D88b5ff0dbfc2761bcec81c3ad63b55970b118dba2482b9d284f1407437f388410e8b6ed35d20%26mpshare%3D1%26scene%3D1%26srcid%3D0419FygtRYGq9WEVnl1TXau3%23rd","title":"制造业如狗","url":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3514795&read_model=false&target_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%3F__biz%3DMzA3MjkwNjE2Nw%3D%3D%26mid%3D2455141333%26idx%3D1%26sn%3D224fcd0dc58abf5cf7fa8e06d9444c3d%26chksm%3D88b5ff0dbfc2761bcec81c3ad63b55970b118dba2482b9d284f1407437f388410e8b6ed35d20%26mpshare%3D1%26scene%3D1%26srcid%3D0419FygtRYGq9WEVnl1TXau3%23rd","use_default_image":false},{"author":{"avatar":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ccd9a4af-c0a4-4a7b-a8c9-c703d5ee204f","display_name":"jiadongqi@wallstreetcn.com","id":120000003993},"content_short":"在系列报告的第一篇中,我们着重探讨从“主流”走向“非主流”的制造业。从贷款余额来看,制造业仍是银行对公信贷最主要的组成部分,但从新增贷款投向来看,2010年以来的制造业信贷实则是经历了由“主流”到“非主流”的过程。","display_time":1557446813,"id":3526277,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/9162ca58-700d-4b44-88bb-937c8117ba72","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"孙彬彬","source_uri":"","title":"银行对公信贷有什么变化?——制造业篇","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3526277","use_default_image":false}],"related_interactives":[]}}}}