【一般推荐】煤炭史江辉、有色刘华峰:大宗飞奔,不止为降准

作者: 国泰君安证券研究
事件:19日晚间,央行降准1%.自2015年4月20日起下调各类存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率1%.在此基础上,为进一步增强金...

事件:19日晚间,央行降准1%。自2015年4月20日起下调各类存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率1%。在此基础上,为进一步增强金融机构支持结构调整的能力,加大对小微企业、“三农”以及重大水利工程建设等的支持力度。

点评

色板块增持评级。我们判断在稳增长压力下,后期流动性宽松有望持续,大宗金属价格反弹有望延续,维持板块增持评级。行业受益标的:电解铝:中孚实业、中国铝业、新疆众和等;其他:驰宏锌锗、豫光金铅、江西铜业。

本次降息超市场预期。本次降息时点上符合市场预期,但降准1%在幅度上高于市场预期的0.5%,预计将会释放约1.25万亿的流动性,从而为当前极差的经济基本面注入资金,同时向重大水利工程建设等加大支持力度也反应出稳增长意图明显。

后续财政+货币宽松有望加速。一季度GDP报收7%,而微观实体感知的GDP增速或已经达到心理底线的5-6%,发电量和投资额度等同比增速的大幅下滑预示短期经济见底的时点或将延迟,CPI和PPI等数据则是继续创新低,整体上稳增长压力极大。因此我们看到降息降准等政策的节奏正在加快,后期财政支出和货币宽松有望加速。

春来好“色”,大宗狂舞,看好有色板块较经济提前见底。我们3月底的报告《春来好“色”,大宗狂舞》中指出,受美元见顶回落和国内二季度稳增长预期加强,大宗商品价格有望企稳回升,分子端改善有望推动有色板块重拾高贝塔属性。目前来看:1)美元走势期间有反复,但见顶的趋势已经明显;2)国内经济较差超出市场预期,经济企稳的时点或将延迟,但稳增长压力较大。回溯2008-2009年可以看出,2008年年底金属价格企稳回升,而国内经济到2009年上半年才见底,我们认为,大宗金属价格或将在经济低到来前率先企稳,最差时点已经过去,有色板块值得增持。

受益标的:基于流动性宽松的预期,我们将板块内大宗金属的个股按照“付息债务/股权市值”进行排序,同时结合当前时点上有色期货价格的反弹,我们认为受益标的如下:电解铝:中国铝业、中孚实业、新疆众和等;其他:驰宏锌锗、江西铜业、豫光金铅。

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