山南耕读之六:《金融投机史》

作者: 徐小庆
也许投机的本质就是人类的理想主义,是溶在血液里的动物精神,它不敬神明,不奉等级,喜欢自由,讨厌伪善的说教,憎恶限制和束缚。孙大圣也许也是我们心中投机精神的一个映射。
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金融投机史

爱德华·钱塞勒

“投机狂热常常是

狂妄自大的表现

当经济实力的平衡

从一国向另一国倾斜时

就会看到大规模的

投机狂热”

当我们谈论投机的时候,我们在谈论什么?

究者似乎天生厌恶投机,喜欢加以道德审判,这是一种拿着锤子找钉子的心态。金融的本质是信用,信用就是相信,信用天然引致投机,所以投机就是金融的一部分。从根源上看,布雷顿森林体系瓦解之后,纸币都只有相对价值,他们价值的最高仲裁人实际上就是投机者,信息本位取代了金本位。而从历史上看,政府很难在保护经济自由主义和对投机的道德抵触之间找到平衡点,绝大对数政府并没有出台立法措施,而是等待投机之弊自行治愈。也许投机的本质就是人类的理想主义,是溶在血液里的动物精神,它不敬神明,不奉等级,喜欢自由,讨厌伪善的说教,憎恶限制和束缚。孙大圣也许也是我们心中投机精神的一个映射。

1

解投机不能离开特定的社会背景,投机史不能是对经济事件的简单描述,在某种程度上,它也必须是社会史。

评:加尔布雷思曾说:关于1929年的股市投机,引人注目的地方不是大规模的参与,而是它怎样成为了文化的要素。 2

机者的愿景毁于他们靠不住的时间观念,股市中的大多头试图把未来浓缩成短短几天,把漫长的历史进程打折,把整个未来折成现值收割,然而事实证明,未来往往不像投机者所希望的那样听话。

评:要和时间站在一起,要做时间的朋友。 3

机的幽灵是无政府主义者,不敬神明,不奉等级,他们喜欢自由,讨厌伪善的说教,憎恶限制和束缚。投机的本质仍然是一种乌托邦式的理想,渴望自由和平等,以平衡现代经济制度下单调乏味的理性主义和物质主义,打破不可避免的财富不平等。

评:投机的本质是人类的理想主义,是溶在血液里的动物精神,孙悟空其实也是人心中的这种投射。 4

黄金不同,信用可立可破,没有信就没有用,信用的价值依赖于信任。信用不断变化,难以捉摸,不受控制。信用跟投机是连体双胞胎,同时降生,性格相同,形影不离。

评:有信用就有投机,有信用才叫金融。经济学研究的绝大部分是实体情况,所以理性很重要。但金融学研究的很大一部分是信用,这就导致了不可避免的投机,或者说投机就是金融的一部分。所以说消灭投机相当于是说消灭信用。在金融资本主义的起源当中,理性主义实在是个非常次要的因素。 5

边是经济自由主义的本能,另一边是厌恶投机的道德抵触,政府很难找到这两者之间的平衡。投机狂热提出了一些政府无法回答的重要问题:“过度投机”与“正当贸易”的区别是什么?怎样才能抑制前者而又不影响后者?如果在阻止这种恶行的同时扼杀了企业家精神是得不偿失的。历史上绝大多数政府最终都没有出台立法措施,只能等着投机之弊自行治愈。

6

机者是资本主义发展进程中的先锋,一旦创新已被普遍接受并产生稳定的回报,投机就会让位给投资。

7

在时代中心的板块总能成为最热门的投机板块。

评:比如铁路普及、汽车取代铁路、无线电、飞机制造、电影业、电信业、互联网…… 8

们通常认为数学能给出准确而又可靠的结果,但是在股市中,数学公式越复杂、越深奥,我们从中得出的结论就越不确定、越有投机性。计算可以把投资伪装成投资。

评:很多情况下,复杂是为了掩盖某些实质,比如欺骗、比如无知 9

崩盘与大萧条的关系是经济史上争论最激烈的问题之一。因为这一争论已经政治化,涉及市场是该由政府掌控,还是该任其自行发展,所以结论将永远也无法让各方都满意。

评:比如罗斯福曾暗示大崩盘与经济危机之间的因果关系能帮他赢得政治资本,还能证明“新政”的合理性。而弗里德曼的观点是大崩盘并没有引起银行业危机,也没有导致大萧条。这种观点深受里根时代共和党人的欢迎,因为他们非常希望推翻罗斯福留下的那一套。所以,只有是非,没有对错。 10

情制造意见,而不是意见制造行情。

11

雷顿森林体系瓦解之后,货币变成了纯粹的虚拟产物,所有币值都将反映他们的未来价值,在这个新体系中,最高仲裁人是投机者。信息本位已经取代金本位成为世界金融的基础。

评:纸币与黄金脱钩之后,所有纸币都只有相对价值,纸币的价值只取决于投资者/投机者对其未来的预期,所以各种信息才成为定价依据。但更快捷的通信为更多的反馈创造了条件,使得金融市场更容易出现跟风的局面,这抵消了市场运行效率的提高。 12

款保险不仅让储户放松了警惕,而且还怂恿他们到那些最不可靠的机构那里寻求最高利息,存款保险就是“美国金融业的强效可卡因”。

13

机狂热常常是狂妄自大的表现,当经济实力的平衡从一国向另一国倾斜时,就会看到大规模的投机狂热。

评:所以才会有“老二的诅咒”,在赶超过程中如果不能处理好这种强大的投机冲动,要么扼杀创新,要么泡沫崩溃 14

日本人最终决定戳破泡沫时,更多是出于社会控制的原因,而不是因为害怕泡沫造成的副作用。投机者是日本社会中的暴发户,他们在等级体系中没有位置,因而对社会的微妙结构构成了威胁,最终成为了社会必须要除掉的眼中钉。

15

投机者成为众矢之的时,社会难免要牺牲一些自由。哈耶克认为混合经济注定会走向社会主义,但历史已经证明他的结论是错误的,他低估了投机的力量。即使是在半社会主义的经济体中,投机也能把社会拉向相反的方向。比如投资破坏了固定汇率的布雷顿森林体系,随后又摧毁了日本及其他亚洲国家由国家控制的资本主义。作为一种无政府主义的力量,投机必然招致政府持续的限制,但它终将挣脱各种束缚,继续横行肆虐。世界经济就像钟摆一样,不停在自由与约束之间来回摆动。



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