【泽平宏观】点评人民币汇率急剧贬值——人民币贬值部分修正高估,还有空间

作者: 任泽平
文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌 事件:人民币中间价大幅下调逾100点,人民币兑美元中间价报6.2298;上日中间价报6.1162,收报6.2097。

文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌

事件:

人民币中间价大幅下调逾 100 点,人民币兑美元中间价报 6.2298 ;上日中间价报 6.1162 ,收报 6.2097

点评:

1 )核心观点:此次人民币贬值为正常的修复前期高估部分,而非竞争性贬值,有助于缓解出口压力。 此前,我们多次强调人民币成为世界第二强货币,负面影响巨大,有可能效仿 14 年上半年短期快速贬值。第一,当前出口增速严重超调,造成过度去工业化风险。 7 月出口同比 -8.3% 。第二,引发贬值和资本流出预期。第三,制约货币政策操作空间。

考虑到贬值和降息对稳增长的替代性,此次贬值将缓解货政压力。 由于贬值不到位(预计人民币还有 3% 以上的高估),资本流出压力仍在,央行对冲。

2 )此次人民币贬值 1.86% ,修正高估部分,而非竞争性贬值。 第一,去年欧元和日元贬值幅度高达 20-30% 。第二,随着资金回流美国,近期新兴经济体货币也快速贬值。

3 )人民币贬值缓解出口压力,是稳增长成本最小的方式。 虽然全球贸易量缩减,但不至于导致中国出口萎缩这么大。 1-7 月出口同比为 -0.8%

4 )未来人民币仍存 3% 贬值空间,资本外流压力仍在。 根据我们的测算 15Q2 热钱流出 1000 亿美元,且随着美联储加息升温, 5 月份以来资金外流趋势加剧, 7 月末外储降至 3.65 万亿美元。

5 )此次贬值部分对冲货币政策操作,进一步确认货币政策进入观望期。 考虑到猪价上涨、美联储加息等因素,我们维持 3 季度货币政策主要通过定向工具或公开市场操作来对冲流动性问题。

6 )此次贬值利好出口,资本流出预期对股债市场有短期冲击。 维持股市区间震荡判断。 9 10 月份可能有明确信号和趋势,摆脱震荡变盘。对这次股灾定性和如何促进持续健康发展成为关键。

阅读
举报
参与评论
收藏
qrcode
相关资讯
参与评论
\n \n
\n

\n \n 文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌\n \n

\n

\n \n \n 事件:\n \n \n

\n

\n \n 人民币中间价大幅下调逾\n \n 100\n \n 点,人民币兑美元中间价报\n \n 6.2298\n \n ;上日中间价报\n \n 6.1162\n \n ,收报\n \n 6.2097\n \n 。\n \n

\n

\n \n \n 点评:\n \n \n

\n

\n \n 1\n \n \n \n )核心观点:此次人民币贬值为正常的修复前期高估部分,而非竞争性贬值,有助于缓解出口压力。\n \n \n \n 此前,我们多次强调人民币成为世界第二强货币,负面影响巨大,有可能效仿\n \n 14\n \n 年上半年短期快速贬值。第一,当前出口增速严重超调,造成过度去工业化风险。\n \n 7\n \n 月出口同比\n \n -8.3%\n \n 。第二,引发贬值和资本流出预期。第三,制约货币政策操作空间。\n \n

\n

\n \n \n 考虑到贬值和降息对稳增长的替代性,此次贬值将缓解货政压力。\n \n \n \n 由于贬值不到位(预计人民币还有\n \n 3%\n \n 以上的高估),资本流出压力仍在,央行对冲。\n \n

\n

\n \n 2\n \n \n \n )此次人民币贬值\n \n 1.86%\n \n \n \n ,修正高估部分,而非竞争性贬值。\n \n \n \n 第一,去年欧元和日元贬值幅度高达\n \n 20-30%\n \n 。第二,随着资金回流美国,近期新兴经济体货币也快速贬值。\n \n

\n

\n \n 3\n \n \n \n )人民币贬值缓解出口压力,是稳增长成本最小的方式。\n \n \n \n 虽然全球贸易量缩减,但不至于导致中国出口萎缩这么大。\n \n 1-7\n \n 月出口同比为\n \n -0.8%\n \n 。\n \n

\n

\n \n 4\n \n \n \n )未来人民币仍存\n \n 3%\n \n \n \n 贬值空间,资本外流压力仍在。\n \n \n \n 根据我们的测算\n \n 15Q2\n \n 热钱流出\n \n 1000\n \n 亿美元,且随着美联储加息升温,\n \n 5\n \n 月份以来资金外流趋势加剧,\n \n 7\n \n 月末外储降至\n \n 3.65\n \n 万亿美元。\n \n

\n

\n \n 5\n \n \n \n )此次贬值部分对冲货币政策操作,进一步确认货币政策进入观望期。\n \n \n \n 考虑到猪价上涨、美联储加息等因素,我们维持\n \n 3\n \n 季度货币政策主要通过定向工具或公开市场操作来对冲流动性问题。\n \n

\n

\n \n 6\n \n \n \n )此次贬值利好出口,资本流出预期对股债市场有短期冲击。\n \n \n \n 维持股市区间震荡判断。\n \n 9\n \n —\n \n 10\n \n 月份可能有明确信号和趋势,摆脱震荡变盘。对这次股灾定性和如何促进持续健康发展成为关键。\n \n

\n

\n \n

\n
\n \n
\n
\n 阅读\n
\n \n 举报\n \n
\n \n
\n
\n
\n
\n","content_short":"文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌 事件:人民币中间价大幅下调逾100点,人民币兑美元中间价报6.2298;上日中间价报6.1162,收报6.2097。","display_time":1439287982,"id":232113,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/content_default_13.jpg","is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","membership_uri":"","next":{"id":222008,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1d/d4/62/getrptjpg.jpg","title":"中国经济放缓贸易伙伴遭殃 花旗建议做空新兴市场货币","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/222008"},"pageviews":16,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":221991,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/67/69/cf/rmb-3.jpg","title":"人民币一次性贬值近2% 对我们有哪些影响?","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/221991"},"related_articles":[{"author":{"avatar":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c4130f85-2e57-4713-8a48-b6e1f5d1b9a5","display_name":"蒋玉","id":120000002767},"content_short":"一德期货宏观研究员车美超认为综合内外部因素均有所改善,预计2019年人民币汇率贬值压力放缓,一季度在中美贸易战暂停的影响下或有升值预期。","display_time":1547634682,"id":3470691,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b779ee42-c1e3-482b-ac64-be3bbf6851f3","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"一德菁英汇","source_uri":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3NTAxODEzMA==&mid=2651703822&idx=2&sn=ad31cdeb012626bd48041b7e0ef3eeaf&chksm=848f90f3b3f819e5bffa22f5967747e32ba1bfb24c3e5870ff8d826c48aaa76152216e38ed3e&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd","title":"人民币 · 贬值压力放缓,双向波动加强","url":"https://api-prod.wallstreetcn.com/redirect?target_article_id=3470691&read_model=false&target_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%3F__biz%3DMzA3NTAxODEzMA%3D%3D%26mid%3D2651703822%26idx%3D2%26sn%3Dad31cdeb012626bd48041b7e0ef3eeaf%26chksm%3D848f90f3b3f819e5bffa22f5967747e32ba1bfb24c3e5870ff8d826c48aaa76152216e38ed3e%26scene%3D0%26xtrack%3D1%23rd","use_default_image":false},{"author":{"avatar":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/eb/01/a3/0801-1.jpg","display_name":"许超","id":100000379170},"content_short":"在岸人民币2018年全年下跌5.15%,全年震幅超7000点,创1994年汇率并轨以来最大纪录。上下半年的走势迥异,以年中为分界,主要跌势从下半年启动。","display_time":1546001369,"id":3461758,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/cc86e4b7-5b04-4261-9669-a87ab8213b8d.jpg","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","title":"2018年人民币收官:全年贬值逾5% 振幅高达7000点创纪录","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3461758","use_default_image":false},{"author":{"avatar":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/41b82239-6b0b-4c7c-bce7-9ac348f39ef1","display_name":"周明明","id":120000003181},"content_short":"人民币今日走势犹如过山车,在岸人民币兑美元最终收报6.7578,较上一交易日官方收盘价跌96点。但今日人民币中间价报6.7560刷新2018年7月下旬以来新高。在经历了上周暴涨逾千点之后,高盛昨日上调人民币兑美元预期。","display_time":1547454780,"id":3468505,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/300285d8-31c9-4ec3-955f-8d62f592a893.jpg","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","title":"人民币今日上演过山车行情:一度涨超200点逼近6.74 随后抹去全部涨幅","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3468505","use_default_image":false},{"author":{"avatar":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/28/62/7f/dsc-2419.jpg","display_name":"陶旖洁","id":100001377409},"content_short":"人民币中间价周四报6.8160,较上一交易日中间价上涨366点。中美在京进行经贸问题副部级磋商期间,美元指数跌至2018年10月以来的低位,人民币则持续走高。","display_time":1547090012,"id":3466535,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/0f9a20be-afc7-49e5-827a-fa80534ea6cc.jpg","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","title":"人民币持续上涨 周四中间价上调366点","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3466535","use_default_image":false},{"author":{"avatar":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/20/18/8d/img-0462.jpg","display_name":"刘晓翠","id":47395},"content_short":"人民币强势开盘可能定下未来数月的基调","display_time":1547090329,"id":3466596,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/51ecbce5-6703-46e0-9e3a-776ad516b16b","is_in_vip_privilege":false,"is_priced":false,"source_name":"韩会师","source_uri":"","title":"韩会师:人民币开年走强,可持续否?","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3466596","use_default_image":false}],"related_themes":[],"related_topics":[],"source_name":"","source_uri":"","symbols":[],"tags":[],"themes":[],"title":"【泽平宏观】点评人民币汇率急剧贬值——人民币贬值部分修正高估,还有空间","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":0}},"[\"/content/articles/hot\",{\"period\":\"all\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"day_items":[{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548297516,"display_user_id":120000000921,"id":3475339,"pageviews":49134,"title":"华为发布业界首款5G芯片 算力比以往芯片强约2.5倍","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475339"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548287078,"display_user_id":120000003181,"id":3475174,"pageviews":44180,"title":"棚改变局来了!多地2019年目标“腰斩”","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475174"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548281603,"display_user_id":75,"id":3475158,"pageviews":42573,"title":"王岐山在世界经济论坛2019年年会上的致辞(全文)","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475158"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548292853,"display_user_id":120000003181,"id":3475241,"pageviews":35034,"title":"这门怕是开不了了?墙的问题还没解决 债务上限又要来了","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475241"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548318750,"display_user_id":120000002330,"id":3475580,"pageviews":33018,"title":"广电总局发放第四批游戏版号 腾讯、网易终于获批!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475580"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548262366,"display_user_id":75,"id":3475149,"pageviews":30226,"title":"在达沃斯,施瓦布替全球问了王岐山5个问题","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475149"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548271910,"display_user_id":120000002009,"id":3475152,"pageviews":28626,"title":"桥水联席CIO:形势将变得比人们预期的还糟糕","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475152"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548285338,"display_user_id":66068,"id":3475160,"pageviews":26136,"title":"华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio|2019年1月24日","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475160"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548287667,"display_user_id":120000001939,"id":3475172,"pageviews":24726,"title":"工行董事长易会满21日通过考察 新的变动将很快公布","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475172"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548256760,"display_user_id":120000002923,"id":3475122,"pageviews":23739,"title":"王兴“消灭”摩拜","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3475122"}],"week_items":[{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547963907,"display_user_id":100000379170,"id":3472690,"pageviews":272285,"title":"任正非内部电邮讲话:准备过苦日子,不增值的管理都让它消亡","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3472690"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547885538,"display_user_id":100000379170,"id":3472492,"pageviews":245229,"title":" 马财长:马来西亚要的不是道歉 是高盛交上75亿美元罚款!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3472492"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547789434,"display_user_id":120000001095,"id":3471955,"pageviews":209827,"title":"独家 | 大疆痛下反腐狠手:涉案百余人,预计损失超10亿元","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3471955"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547820249,"display_user_id":100000350101,"id":3472331,"pageviews":198402,"title":"周六生效!欧盟将对中国电动车征收最高79.3%的关税","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3472331"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547732869,"display_user_id":100000379170,"id":3471541,"pageviews":190400,"title":"悄然间,俄罗斯即将取代德国成为世界第五大经济体!","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3471541"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547779663,"display_user_id":100000350111,"id":3471827,"pageviews":187641,"title":"充电5分钟,行驶190公里!这家公司宣称锂电池技术取得重大突破","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3471827"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548165572,"display_user_id":120000001606,"id":3474375,"pageviews":176379,"title":"这篇文章刷屏了:搜索引擎百度已死","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3474375"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547835496,"display_user_id":100000330115,"id":3472362,"pageviews":166582,"title":"经济崩溃骚乱蔓延 津巴布韦切断全国网络","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3472362"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1547785395,"display_user_id":120000002173,"id":3471932,"pageviews":148253,"title":"苹果供应商拉响警报!“我工作了半个世纪,还是第一次看到如此大幅度的月度订单下滑”","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3471932"},{"comment_count":0,"display_time":1548036132,"display_user_id":120000000282,"id":3473127,"pageviews":126048,"title":"中国2018年GDP增速6.6% 实现预期发展目标 四季度GDP增速创近十年新低","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3473127"}]}},"[\"/comment/articles/232113/comments\",{\"time_desc\":true,\"first_page\":true,\"cursor\":\"\",\"limit\":10},{\"noCacheWhenLogin\":true}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"has_more":false,"items":null,"next_cursor":"","resource_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/content_default_28.jpg","resource_title":"【泽平宏观】点评人民币汇率急剧贬值——人民币贬值部分修正高估,还有空间","resource_uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/232113","total_count":0}}}}