【泽平宏观】点评人民币汇率急剧贬值——人民币贬值部分修正高估,还有空间

作者: 任泽平
文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌 事件:人民币中间价大幅下调逾100点,人民币兑美元中间价报6.2298;上日中间价报6.1162,收报6.2097。

文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌

事件:

人民币中间价
大幅下调逾 100 点,人民币兑美元中间价报 6.2298 ;上日中间价报 6.1162 ,收报 6.2097

点评:

1 )核心观点:此次人民币贬值为正常的修复前期高估部分,而非竞争性贬值,有助于缓解出口压力。 此前,我们多次强调人民币成为世界第二强货币,负面影响巨大,有可能效仿 14 年上半年短期快速贬值。第一,当前出口增速严重超调,造成过度去工业化风险。 7 月出口同比 -8.3% 。第二,引发贬值和资本流出预期。第三,制约货币政策操作空间。

考虑到贬值和降息对稳增长的替代性,此次贬值将缓解货政压力。 由于贬值不到位(预计人民币还有 3% 以上的高估),资本流出压力仍在,央行对冲。

2 )此次人民币贬值 1.86% ,修正高估部分,而非竞争性贬值。 第一,去年欧元和日元贬值幅度高达 20-30% 。第二,随着资金回流美国,近期新兴经济体货币也快速贬值。

3 )人民币贬值缓解出口压力,是稳增长成本最小的方式。 虽然全球贸易量缩减,但不至于导致中国出口萎缩这么大。 1-7 月出口同比为 -0.8%

4 )未来人民币仍存 3% 贬值空间,资本外流压力仍在。 根据我们的测算 15Q2 热钱流出 1000 亿美元,且随着美联储加息升温, 5 月份以来资金外流趋势加剧, 7 月末外储降至 3.65 万亿美元。

5 )此次贬值部分对冲货币政策操作,进一步确认货币政策进入观望期。 考虑到猪价上涨、美联储加息等因素,我们维持 3 季度货币政策主要通过定向工具或

公开市场操作
来对冲流动性问题。

6 )此次贬值利好出口,资本流出预期对股债市场有短期冲击。 维持股市区间震荡判断。 9 10 月份可能有明确信号和趋势,摆脱震荡变盘。对这次股灾定性和如何促进持续健康发展成为关键。

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\n \n 文:国泰君安宏观任泽平、张庆昌\n \n

\n

\n \n \n 事件:\n \n \n

\n

\n \n 人民币中间价大幅下调逾\n \n 100\n \n 点,人民币兑美元中间价报\n \n 6.2298\n \n ;上日中间价报\n \n 6.1162\n \n ,收报\n \n 6.2097\n \n 。\n \n

\n

\n \n \n 点评:\n \n \n

\n

\n \n 1\n \n \n \n )核心观点:此次人民币贬值为正常的修复前期高估部分,而非竞争性贬值,有助于缓解出口压力。\n \n \n \n 此前,我们多次强调人民币成为世界第二强货币,负面影响巨大,有可能效仿\n \n 14\n \n 年上半年短期快速贬值。第一,当前出口增速严重超调,造成过度去工业化风险。\n \n 7\n \n 月出口同比\n \n -8.3%\n \n 。第二,引发贬值和资本流出预期。第三,制约货币政策操作空间。\n \n

\n

\n \n \n 考虑到贬值和降息对稳增长的替代性,此次贬值将缓解货政压力。\n \n \n \n 由于贬值不到位(预计人民币还有\n \n 3%\n \n 以上的高估),资本流出压力仍在,央行对冲。\n \n

\n

\n \n 2\n \n \n \n )此次人民币贬值\n \n 1.86%\n \n \n \n ,修正高估部分,而非竞争性贬值。\n \n \n \n 第一,去年欧元和日元贬值幅度高达\n \n 20-30%\n \n 。第二,随着资金回流美国,近期新兴经济体货币也快速贬值。\n \n

\n

\n \n 3\n \n \n \n )人民币贬值缓解出口压力,是稳增长成本最小的方式。\n \n \n \n 虽然全球贸易量缩减,但不至于导致中国出口萎缩这么大。\n \n 1-7\n \n 月出口同比为\n \n -0.8%\n \n 。\n \n

\n

\n \n 4\n \n \n \n )未来人民币仍存\n \n 3%\n \n \n \n 贬值空间,资本外流压力仍在。\n \n \n \n 根据我们的测算\n \n 15Q2\n \n 热钱流出\n \n 1000\n \n 亿美元,且随着美联储加息升温,\n \n 5\n \n 月份以来资金外流趋势加剧,\n \n 7\n \n 月末外储降至\n \n 3.65\n \n 万亿美元。\n \n

\n

\n \n 5\n \n \n \n )此次贬值部分对冲货币政策操作,进一步确认货币政策进入观望期。\n \n \n \n 考虑到猪价上涨、美联储加息等因素,我们维持\n \n 3\n \n 季度货币政策主要通过定向工具或公开市场操作来对冲流动性问题。\n \n

\n

\n \n 6\n \n \n \n )此次贬值利好出口,资本流出预期对股债市场有短期冲击。\n \n \n \n 维持股市区间震荡判断。\n \n 9\n \n —\n \n 10\n \n 月份可能有明确信号和趋势,摆脱震荡变盘。对这次股灾定性和如何促进持续健康发展成为关键。\n \n

\n

\n \n

\n
\n \n
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\n 阅读\n
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