晨报重点推荐:榕基软件 一般推荐:通策医疗等

作者: 国泰君安证券研究
重点推荐:榕基软件,计算机符健认为公司深耕福建市场二十年,为电子政务区域龙头,受益传统业务回暖,预计2015

重点推荐:榕基软件,计算机符健认为公司深耕福建市场二十年,为电子政务区域龙头,受益传统业务回暖,预计2015-2017年EPS分别为0.03/0.08/0.10元,首次覆盖增持评级,目标价32元。

一般推荐:通策医疗,医药团队认为收购海骏科技后,公司将开展基于工业4.0制造软硬件医疗服务一体的数字化正畸业务、基于互联网+的生殖医疗技术和资源整合平台业务,以及基于O2O的三叶儿童口腔连锁管理业务,上调目标价至70元,重申增持评级。

一、今日重点推荐

1、公司首次覆盖:榕基软件(002474)《乘“数字福建”之风,商业模式变革有望开启》

首次覆盖给予增持评级,目标价32元。受益传统业务回暖,预计公司2015-2017年EPS分别为0.03元、0.08元、0.10元。考虑市场对于星榕基业务爆发性认识存在严重不足,首次覆盖给予增持评级,目标价32元。

深耕福建市场二十年,电子政务区域龙头。公司主要服务对象包括政府、国企、能源和电信等。公司1993年成立于福建,深耕本地二十多年,积累大量的政府资源和合作关系,为未来业务拓展打下良好基础。星榕基的成立,是政府对其资质和业务能力信任的侧面证明。

云计算浪潮席卷,“数字福建”建设推动区域提速。技术端,中国云服务渗透率存在接近三倍的提升空间。而阿里云收入爆发,成为中国云计算爆发的标志性事件。政策端,作为“数字福建”核心构成,福建云计算产业有望得到政策倾斜和提速。考虑2015年是“数字福建”十五周年,倾斜力度有望超出市场预期,后续资源导入值得期待。

星榕基成为公司转型先锋,商业模式变革有望开启。公司与地方国企星云大数据联合成立星榕基。其中,公司占71%股权。星榕基将成为“数字福建”战略下各行业云计算平台的建设者和运营者。平台目前有三大构成,分别是物联网平台、中小企业服务平台和“互联网+”公共服务平台。公司在经历长期的业务探索后,正迎来绝佳的发展契机。若公司后续执行力突破,商业模式变革有望开启。

风险提示:平台建设推进不及预期,传统业务回暖低于预期


二、今日一般推荐

1、公司更新:通策医疗(600763)《收购海骏科技,打造医疗云服务平台》

收购海骏科技,打造医疗云服务平台。收购海骏科技后,公司将开展基于工业4.0制造软硬件医疗服务一体的数字化正畸业务、基于互联网+的生殖医疗技术和资源整合平台业务和基于O2O的三叶儿童口腔连锁管理业务。考虑口腔业务市场拓展加快,上调公司盈利预测2015~2017年EPS0.45(+0.04)/0.61(+0.03)/0.85(+0.1)元。公司在口腔与辅助生殖领域积累深厚,整合海骏科技后有望分享巨大的市场机遇,给予一定的行业溢价,上调目标价至70元,维持增持评级。

正畸市场容量巨大,隐秀模式有望迅速占领市场。口腔正畸目前潜在客户容量为每年675万人,其中20%-30%选择隐形正畸,市场容量巨大。隐秀项目基于工业4.0制造大规模个性化定制,借助互联网+数字化技术,实现正畸治疗和矫治器定制的一体化平台,有望迅速抢占市场份额。

基于O2O的三叶儿童口腔连锁模式。儿童口腔潜在客户容量为23539万人,市场需求旺盛。三叶儿童口腔采用直营+加盟的盈利方式推广,可复制性强,有望在全国推广。

依托存济网络医院,打造生殖健康云平台。目前我国成熟的生殖中心较少,且集中在一线城市。公司线下签约县市级合作诊疗机构合建生殖健康科室,通过医疗云平台,提供线上咨询,线下诊疗的医疗服务,优化服务流程,降低诊疗成本。依靠一流的质量和高成功率,树立行业标杆。

风险提示:重组审批风险;盈利预测不能实现风险;业务整合风险。

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