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【重点推荐】通信宋嘉吉/王胜/周明:中恒电气(002364)能源互联网快速推进

作者: 国泰君安证券研究
2015-12-10 18:56
注:如需转载请标明出处及作者

维持目标价45.4元,维持“增持”评级:据北极星配售电网消息,近日国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能源局综合司批复同意重庆、广东开展售电侧改革试点,电改正快速落地。我们认为能源互联网未来发展空间巨大,具备极高的落地与增长速度,超出市场预期。维持2015-2017年EPS预测分别为0.30/0.45/0.72元,维持目标价45.4元,维持“增持”评级。

中恒能源互联网发展前景被低估。市场认为售电牌照发放、电改细则出台,相关预期已经兑现然而能源互联网后续落地困难仍存在。但我们认为能源互联网未来市场空间巨大,落地性极强,中恒电气能源互联网2016年有望实现规模上量。理由:①能源互联网市场空间巨大。根据埃森哲最近报告预测,到2020年中国能源互联网市场规模将超9400亿美元。能源互联网需要综合大数据、新能源等技术及商业模式创新,而非简单的能源与互联网的加总,创造的价值量巨大②中恒能源互联网落地性极强。中恒在用电侧用电监测管理、电网数字动态模拟仿真、大数据技术等方面优势明显,与南都合作结合南都先进储能发展能源互联网。中恒依靠对于能源互联网的深刻理解,率先推出企业设备代维、微网电力交易、节能服务、电力大数据运营、可视化用电APP增值服务等能源互联网商业模式。将中恒的技术优势与客户迫切能源需求有效结合,拥有极强的落地性,公司能源互联网运营客户规模快速扩展,2016年企业用户有望达2万家。

催化剂:售电牌照发放;电力市场化改革的细则出台

风险提示:能源互联网市场迟迟未启动;合作进展缓慢; 市场波动风险

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