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晨报重点推荐:慧球科技、南都电源 一般推荐:奥特佳等

作者: 国泰君安证券研究
2016-01-07 09:24
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晨报重点推荐:慧球科技、南都电源 一般推荐:奥特佳等

重点推荐:1通信宋嘉吉/王胜推荐慧球科技,大股东拥有的云计算、SDN等优质资产有望注入上市公司,与智慧城市业务形成强协同,目标价40元。2通信周明/宋嘉吉推荐南都电源,在多种储能商业模式全面落地的推动下,储能规模有望迎来快速增长,目标价47.5元。一般推荐:汽车王炎学/孙柏蔚推荐奥特佳,公司作为电动空调压缩机龙头,通过收购进入全球空调整机一级供应商序列,增强产品竞争力,打开全球市场空间,目标价24元。

一、今日重点推荐

1、公司首次覆盖:慧球科技(600556)《云计算+SDN为双翼,智慧城市新锐启航》

首次覆盖并给予“增持”评级,目标价40元。公司大股东实际控制的斐讯通信旗下拥有云计算、SDN等优质资产,有望注入上市公司,与智慧城市业务形成强协同,市场低估了这部分资产的质量和规模。预计公司2015-17年EPS为0.01/0.63/1.02元,参考可比公司平均估值,给予目标价40元(+62%空间),首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。

斐讯旗下稀缺的SDN和云计算资产望注入。市场认为斐讯业务较为庞杂,但我们发现斐讯旗下优质资产众多,有望注入:①斐讯已是UT斯达康第一大股东,有望寻求绝对控股,获得UT斯达康优质的光传输和SDN技术,与智慧城市和云计算业务形成强协同;②斐讯在京沪等地已建和在建IDC机柜数达3万个;③斐讯智慧城市和云计算业务高管均来自IT巨头管理层,过去数年带领业务迅猛发展,有望领导上市公司加速成长。

坚定转型,股份增持、业务注入同步进行。公司此前定增未能过会,市场对公司转型和斐讯入主抱有顾虑,我们则认为道路曲折但方向明确,公司转型智慧城市和云计算的大方向不会改变:①大股东在二级市场持续增持公司股票,表明大股东入主决心,有望获得公司控股权,加速后续业务布局和资本运作;②业务层面已组建智慧城市核心业务团队,成员均来自斐讯,且已与各地政府签订多项合同和框架协议,项目总金额接近250亿元。

催化剂:大股东顾国平增持至控股比例,智慧城市订单落实。

风险提示:资产注入不成功,框架协议未落实,智慧城市竞争加剧。

2、公司更新:南都电源(300068)《引领储能进入规模商用时代》

维持“增持”评级,维持目标价47.50元:南都电源1月6日公告与苏州中恒普瑞签署电力储能电站项目合同,共同实施辉腾电子(苏州)的储能电站项目,南都负责提供储能电池与电站建设。电站规模达12兆瓦时,预计每月有36万度储能电量。我们认为在中标江苏中能硅业12兆瓦时储能电站项目后,南都短期内又获得12兆瓦时的储能大项目,表明南都储加速发展,其商用储能规模放量的节奏超出市场预期,维持2015-2017年EPS预测分别为0.35/0.55/0.79元,维持目标价47.50元及“增持”评级。

南都储能多种模式全面落地加速规模放量:市场认为南都用电侧储能刚落地,其储能已得到验证的适用范围有限,向大规模应用的可行性尚待验证,离进一步大规模放量还很远。但我们认为此次合作项目意味着南都储能不光能成功落地还能大规模应用,其储能规模放量进度超出市场预期,南都有望快速成长为千亿级储能节能服务市场龙头。理由:①南都储能成本低落地性强,推动储能规模快速发展。南都拥有高效储能系统集成能力,度电储能成本低于5毛钱,规模化发展潜力巨大②除此次南都作为电站投资方的“投资+运营”模式,和中能硅业项目中客户作为投资方南都作为总包商的模式外,南都还拥有多方联合投资、联合运营等多种模式,拥有多种强落地性模式的南都储能适用范围更广与规模放量更快③中恒普瑞在江苏省有丰富的电力客户资源,在此合作后南都有望通过将其储能模式在中恒普瑞巨大客户群中的复制与推广,推动南都储能规模快速发展。

风险提示:储能市场发展低于预期;市场波动风险

二、今日一般推荐

1、公司深度研究:奥特佳(002239)《新能源汽车用纯电动空调龙头》

维持“增持”评级。收购完成以后公司由空调零部件供应商进入全球空调系统一级供应商序列,结合公司在新能源汽车空调领域的领先优势,公司市场份额有望持续提升,毛利率与收入均有望持续增长。根据公司最新经营情况,我们调整公司2015/2016EPS为0.21元/0.39元,原为(0.16元/0.38元),根据A股可比公司最新估值,给予目标价24元(原为26.99元)。

并购空调国际与富通空调,公司空调及压缩机龙头地位进一步确立。①新能源汽车电动空调产品升级与市场空间大:空调国际具有国际领先的整车热管理系统,叠加奥特佳的高效电动空调(热泵)压缩机,在新能源汽车舒适性与续航里程要求持续上升背景下,拓展空间显著。②合资品牌压缩机渗透加速:富通的可变排量斜盘技术与合资车厂路线一致(是一汽大众配套商),与空调国际产品整合后可以进一步拓展公司在合资品牌的市场份额。③自主品牌空调系统拓展加速:空调国际深耕国内市场,产品性价比突出,借助奥特佳强力销售渠道,自主品牌份额有望快速提升。

公司持续外延预期高。公司公告参股常州无线电厂,其军用雷达及通讯产品技术成熟,资产具有高度稀缺性。我们认为,公司外延并购效率高且持续(奥特佳、空调国际、富通、常州无线电等多起并购)。

催化剂:出口增长,新能源汽车销量持续高速增长

风险提示:并购整合不及预期

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