新债王最新电话会:2018市场预测最完整幻灯片
2018-01-11 09:32
0

分析员昨天还在某个conference浪着,所以又没有听到Gundlach的call。不过我还是找来了朋友的英文notes分享一下,并且在文末贴上了有用的slides。(一个月前,华尔街见闻报道过新债王的预测,本次电话会上,他对债市、商品的观点有了进一步补充;以及继续看空比特币)

核心观点:

1) 10yr 2.63%, 30yr 3%才会触发美债熊市,Bill Gross你现在就喊熊市太早啦。10yr 在2018年碰3.25%是可能的。2%附近的2yr相比美股来讲在未来两年简直是no braner, safe investment。市场去bet flattern yield curve的trade太拥挤了。

2)  美股即使有可能在上半年再涨15%, 全年也会录得负升幅。10yr 2.63%会是一个触发点。

3) 经济数据很好,但所有的这些都已经price in 各类金融资产价格中。美元短期会反弹。欧洲区2018GDP预测在过去3个月已经调升了0.5%,但市场还没有把ECB变鹰考虑进去。

4) 他号称在比特币17000美金的时候建议了做空比特币。巴菲特今天也说了愿意买入任何比特币五年后的PUT

5)  2018年他最看好商品,觉得已经undervalue太多。分析员必须指出一下,他引用的bloomberg commodity index里面包含了大量的农产品,和中国人平时玩的工业品很不一样,所以才显得那么便宜。实际上工业品已经被中国人玩上了天,而最大宗的铁矿石居然不在那个指数里面!下面看一下这个指数的组成。

 

Global economies

Markets are “levitating” as if from a magical source, Gundlach said, because of quantitative easing (QE). But things are changing, he argued, as central banks are, or will soon, be tightening monetary policies.

Global markets have been characterized by strong economic and market performance on an absolute basis and relative to expectations.

“What’s obvious is obviously priced in,” Gundlach said. He warned investors not to expect strong performance based on strong economic data or the absence of a recession, because those likelihoods are already incorporated into market prices.

Every single country – even Brazil, which has been in a major recession – is growing and will continue to do so for at least the next two quarters, Gundlach said. PMIs across the globe “look pretty good,” he said, except for a couple of countries, including South Korea, which are slightly below 50. The Citigroup economic surprise index looks particularly strong in the U.S. and at a historically high level globally.

But even the South Korean market has gone “vertical” (up around 25%) despite the rhetoric from North Korea, according to Gundlach.

The recently passed tax package will be “bond unfriendly” because it will lead to deficit growth, according to Gundlach. Citing research by former Budget Director David Stockman, he said the tax plan will “scoop” $4200 billion out of the Treasury in the next year and will strain entitlement programs. The plan could require $1.9 trillion of issuance to finance a $1.3 trillion deficit, based on Stockman’s work.

In Europe, the ECB has raised its forecast for economic growth by 0.5% real, but it is not indicating it will tighten, Gundlach said. A more hawkish ECB is not priced into the market, which is why the euro has been strong, he said.

The flow of central bank balance sheets has been highly correlated to equity price increases and to junk bond spreads, according to Gundlach. By the middle of this year, he said the Fed and ECB will be shrinking their balance sheets, and potentially Japan will as well.

The question, Gundlach said, is whether you believe in the magic of the economy and market growth. The current expansion is the third longest in history, but considerably slower than its predecessors. By next year it will be the longest in history.

No recession is in sight, according to Gundlach. Leading economic indicators (LEIs) are strong and signal a recession is at least a year away. The unemployment rate is at a new low and will fall further (by another 75 basis points in the next year) if the current rate of hiring continues. The service and manufacturing PMIs are strong, but are at levels that historically indicate a recession could happen in the next year, although it would take a precipitous drop in those indicators for that to be likely, Gundlach said. The small business optimism index (NFIB) is not signaling recessionary caution either, Gundlach said. Similar strong signs are in the factory order and consumer confidence data.

According to Gundlach, the granddaddy of recession indicators, the high-yield spread to Treasury bonds, normally “blows out” by at least 200 basis points at least four months before a recession. There is no sign of a recession in that respect, he said, unless spreads widen “very soon.”

“This is a magic moment,” Gundlach said. “Every single one of those indicators is at cyclical highs. But that must be priced in, so we need to understand what that means.”

Market performance

U.S. equity performance has indeed been magical, Gundlach said. It is nearing a record for the longest period without a 5% correction. But that will come to an end, according to Gundlach.

The S&P 500 will have a negative return for this year. It may go up in the first half of the year, but it will fall in the second half, wiping out any first half gains, Gundlach said.

Volatility is incredibly low. There were 52 days with the VIX below 10 in 2017, but only a handful of such days in the prior decade.

Valuations are concerning, Gundlach said, based on Shiller CAPE and forward P/E ratios. He said it reminds him most of the 1998-1999 period, just prior to the dot-com crash.

The fact that all the indicators are so positive does not mean the market will “melt up,” as Jeremy Grantham predicted in his most recent commentary.

Junk-bond performance has been flat since the middle of 2016, he said, despite the rise in equity prices. As we have leveraged our capital structure (through corporate debt issuance), Gundlach said that risk has moved to equities, which justifies their higher returns (as compared to corporate bonds).

Over the short term, the dollar will rally and hurt emerging markets, Gundlach predicted. Historically, the dollar (as measured by the DXY trade-weighted index) has been highly correlated to the performance of U.S. markets relative to those in emerging markets. But investors should hold emerging markets for “years to come” because their Shiller ratios are half of that of the S&P 500.

Over the course of the year, the dollar will go down and that will help commodities, he said.

Europe remains a value trap, according to Gundlach. He said the ECB may change its rhetoric and tighten policies and European markets should be avoided.

Bitcoin and inflation

We are getting near a “mania phase” on bitcoin, Gundlach said, even though it could go higher in the short term. He recommended shorting it on December 13 of last year when it was at $17,000. “This high on bitcoin is in,” he said, and nobody should trust any self-professed “bitcoin experts.”

Don’t believe those who say bitcoin is safe and secure, Gundlach warned. People are falling for the safety, anonymity and anti-government aspects of bitcoin, and failing to understand its risk. “It is very different from my very conservative DNA,” he said.

For years, core CPI has been at or below zero, he said, but service CPI has been relatively high. Core CPI is not around 2% as most people think, Gundlach said. It has two components: services could come down or goods could go up, but neither seems likely now.

One concern for bond investors is that forward-looking inflation indicators, such as the NY UIG, are rising. It indicates that core CPI will be 3% in 16 months, which would be a “real shocker” for the bond market, he said.

“If you believe GDP is about to go higher,” Gundlach said, “that would confirm higher inflation.”

Commodities will outperform in 2018, he said. As reasons, Gundlach cited possible higher inflation and the weakness of commodities relative to stocks, which is historically low and because we could be late in the economic cycle. The run-up to a recession is when commodities have historically rallied, Gundlach said. Using DoubleLine’s proprietary methodology, he said commodities are about two standard deviations cheap.

Going into each of the last five recessions, commodities have rallied extremely strongly, sometimes by as much as four-times, according to Gundlach.

“Stay with gold,” he said, “but buy commodities in a broadly diversified basket.”

Interest rates

Bond prices had no magic, Gundlach said.

Investment-grade spreads are 75 basis points and high-yield spreads are 200, so it is a “horrible time to buy corporate bonds,” Gundlach said. Since February 2016, when 10-year yields were at their lowest, corporate bond prices have suffered as spreads have tightened.

“All these investors who piled into corporate bonds and thought they had no interest rate risk are in for a surprise,” Gundlach said.

The 10-year Treasury is at 2.54%, he said, and 2.63% is a key resistance level to trigger a bear market. The same is true of 3% on the 30-year bond. “If it closes above 3.22% then the bond bull market is over.

If the 10-year yield reaches 2.63%, he said it will accelerate higher, “spooking” the equity markets.

The yield curve could flatten but doesn’t look recessionary, Gundlach said. “If we stay at the current level for another two weeks,” he said, “it will not look at all like a recession.” The consensus is crowded into the “flattening trade,” he said, which is not working.

The idea of no recession is priced into the markets, Gundlach said. “It fueled the last six months of price movement, but not the next six months.”

Two-year Treasury bond yields, at approximately 2%, are more than the S&P 500. It is a “no-brainer, safe investment,” Gundlach said. Risk assets could fall for any number of reasons, he said, such as Fed tightening or subsiding animal spirits – and the two-year provides capital to invest at more favorable prices.

Reiterating one of his most celebrated predictions, Gundlach said he still sees the 10-year yield at 6% by, or shortly after, the next presidential election.

 

 

 

只要您有干货观点或文章,欢迎投稿入驻华尔街见闻名家专栏,联系邮箱:zhuanlan@wallstreetcn.com

收藏
相关新闻
请发表您的评论
全球投资人,微信公众号: 加州分析员(ca-alpha)
总篇数
22
粉丝
936
实时行情
综览外汇商品股指债券