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洪灝:寒梅著花未?

来源: 洪灏
2018-11-29 21:15
岁寒知松柏 苦寒梅花香

本文来源:洪灏 (ID:honghaochinastrategy),华尔街见闻专栏作者

For the Chinese, time is cyclic. It is a recurrence, a tapestry of monsoons, seasons and the rise and fall of dynasties. It is one of the reasons why the Chinese is prone to economic cycle theories. Since ancient times, the Chinese classics had discussed cycles in the ancient agrarian economy, long before Jevons’s sun-spot theory, which initiated the serious research into economic cycles in the west.

对于中国人来说,时间是周而复始的,交织着生命的轮回、季节的更替和朝代的兴衰。这是中国人热衷于经济周期分析的原因之一。早在杰文斯提出太阳黑子理论前,中国经典文献对古代农业经济的周期问题早已有论述,从而引发了西方对经济周期的认真研究。

The I-Ching, for instance, is a book of divination based on cycles. Sima Qian’s magnum opus, “Records of the Grand Historian”, widely regarded as one of the most significant Chinese history classics, combines the Jupiter Chronology with Chinese theory of “Five Elements” to describe the agricultural cycle - from harvest, crop failure, drought, and eventually to severe famine at the end of every twelve years. “Huainanzi” describes the process of how smaller three-year cycles embedded in larger twelve-year cycles, with “crop output declining every three years, famine happening every six years, and a serious crop failure occurring every twelve years”. “Discourses on Salt and Iron”, another Chinese ancient classic, records a similar twelve-year agricultural cycle.

例如,《易经》就是一本基于周期的占卜预测书。司马迁的巨著《史记》被广泛认为是中国历史上最重要的经典之一。司马迁把木星的年表与中国的 “五行” 理论结合, 描述了从丰收、歉收、 干旱,到最终严重饥荒的一个、十二年的农业周期。《淮南子》描述了数个较短的三年周期如何嵌套在一个较长的十二年周期中,并曰:“三岁而一饥,六岁而一衰,十二岁一康”。另一本中国古典文献《盐铁论》也记载了一个类似的十二年农业周期。

Our research has shown that there exist well-defined short cycles of around 3 to 4 years in duration in the US and China’s economies. These cycles by themselves are endogenous to the underlying dynamics in the economy. They fluctuate with regular cyclicality and simultaneity across a vast array of economic variables, and engender ebbs and flows in the economic trajectory. Every few years when the short cycles in the US and China entwine, significant gyrations will occur in markets and the social domain. We are now about to enter such phase. Singular episodes and significant market upheavals are about to emerge. The confluence of the declining US and China cycles will prove to be too tough to fight soon. The significant fall in China’s stock market is a prelude of what is to come.

我们的研究表明,中美经济存在明确的短周期,约为3-4年。这些周期的本身根植于经济运行的内在动力。在周期运行的时候,大量宏观经济变量同时地、有规律地波动,并在经济运行的轨迹中引起潮起潮落。每隔几年,当美国和中国的短周期纠缠在一起时,市场和社会领域就会出现显著的波动。如今,我们将要进入这个时期,重大事件和剧烈的市场动荡即将出现。试图反抗中美短周期同时下行而产生的合力将是徒劳,而今年中国股市的暴跌只是序幕。

At such volatile times when bear market beacons, one should refrain from the urge to catch falling knives, even though markets here in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong have cheapened substantially. Few can escape the fate of economic cycles. What to do with a million dollars is a million-dollar question. For now, gold, US treasury bonds and the US dollar could provide safe refuge. For the brave ones with cash to deploy in the near term, there will be better entry points after the storm.

在动荡的熊市里,上海,深圳和香港三地市场的估值打折已深,但人们仍应避免接飞刀。鲜有人能逃脱经济周期的轮回。此时,如何配置一百万美元的资金是一道有价值的难题。目前,黄金、美国国债和美元是相对安全的投资。对于那些在短期内仍有现金盈余的勇者来说,风暴过后将会有更好的买点。

The other way to play: For a really out-of-the-box investment, I would put my money into Kweichow Moutai, the fiery Chinese liquor, the only investment to outperform China’s housing market in the last two decades. Like some of the finest French Bordeaux wines, supply is strictly limited and it appreciates in value with age. A single bottle of 1940 vintage sold for 1.97 million yuan ($287,700) at a July auction in China.

而另类的投资方式:若要打破常规,我会选择投资贵州茅台酒,一种中国烈酒,因为它是过去二十年来唯一跑赢中国房地产的投资。茅台酒就像一些顶级的法国波尔多红酒,产品供应受到严格限制,价格也随着时间的流逝而不断攀升。在中国7月份的一场拍卖会上,一瓶1940年的陈年茅台售价高达197万元人民币(287,700美元)。

洪灝,CFA

以上是我今年九月十一日,为彭博社撰稿的专栏《Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now》的原文(英文版,中文翻译)。请点击文末“阅读原文”,阅读经过彭博社编辑的专栏。请注意穿越火长城。

洪灝

原标题《洪灝:彭博社专栏《寒梅著花未?》》

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