尖峰对话 | 诺奖得主斯宾塞(下篇): 中国,应该怎样和世界聊一聊

作者: 经济百谈
喊话马云,经济数字化机会在哪里?挑战又是什么?

*本次访谈由华尔街见闻与当代经济学基金会共同发起,由见闻特约记者——美国WinShore基金的创始人及首席投资官胡刚在斯宾塞教授纽约的住所完成。

在清冷的纽约早晨,斯宾塞谈论了眼下最热切的议题。在上篇里,我们呈现他所理解的中国经济未来前景,以及在国际格局重塑的大环境中,像华为这样的公司,该如何自处。他的建议是:

无论出于什么原因,有的国家对中国的态度越来越激烈。华为在美国、澳大利亚、新西兰甚至可能还有英国都收到了制约,所以华为必须要讲清楚,他们在海外发展项目时并不受其他因素控制,而且,华为必须发出可信的信号,证明他们是拥有市场准入权的。这意味着我们现在还处于发展国际合作的早期阶段,也是未来的挑战所在。那些说贸易摩擦终会结束,国际关系将恢复到过去状态的观点,我认为是不现实的。

在下半场,他着重谈了对特朗普政策的理解:特朗普好战姿态的背后是什么?他想要和其他人共赢吗?

斯宾塞也喊话中国朋友:马云在杭州的研究院,真的能够理解经济数字化吗?机会在哪里?挑战又是什么?数字化成为经济增长的未来,中国又该如何与世界分享。

在一个经济学诺奖得主的眼中,中国,应该怎样和世界聊一聊。

置身于威胁之下,是学习的最佳途径。

*本文为《经济百谈 |对话诺奖得主斯宾塞》的下篇,上篇回顾《世界规则已改,是时候明白再也回不去了

美国从未有过逮捕CFO的先例,有些界限不可逾越

见闻特约记者胡刚:现在让我们把目光放回美国,您如何看待特朗普的经济政策?

Let's come back to the US. What do you think of the Trump’s economics policies? What's your view about?

Spence:喜忧参半。我认为最好的经济政策就来自于当一群有才华的人聚集在一起,他们对经济运作方式有着深刻的见解,并持有不同的观点。考虑到白宫经济团队最近的人事变动,特朗普已经得到了他所需要的这些人,他似乎更喜欢找和他观点一致的人。

It's mixed. I think economic policy is best done when you have a group of people who are talented, have somewhat different views, have insights into the way the economy works and so on. Given the turnover in the economic team of the White House, Trump has got all of the pieces that he needs. You know, he seems to want to have people to sort of agree with him.

我认为他对贸易的直觉并不像一些人想的那么坏,至少在贸易方面,他创造了一个机会,使均衡回到有利于美国就业的状态,尽管它是以一种好战的姿态出现。

I think his instincts on  trade aren't as bad as some people think. There's at least a reasonable chance that he will , until the balance back in favor of working on, although it's delivered with a kind of belligerence. 

但是,特朗普这么做让人很不舒服,也让整个外交界很不舒服。我不喜欢因为公司的不当行为而逮捕别人。比如,在美国有很多金融机构因不当行为而受到指控,他们在这些案件中支付了巨额的罚款,但从未有过逮捕CFO的先例。需要说清楚的是,有些界限是不该逾越的。

You went to put people off and certainly put the diplomatic community off. I’m not a fan of arresting people for the misbehavior of companies. I mean we had a lot of alleged misbehavior by major financial institutions and they've paid very large fines in those cases are settled. But I can't think of a case where we arrested the chief financial officer. So I want to be clear. I think there are boundaries that shouldn't be stepped over.

(获准保释后华为CFO在安保陪同下出门)

当然,特朗普不支持双赢,所以他不会帮助中国。但我们至少可以改变游戏规则,让各方在利益和成本之间取得平衡。另外还有很多可以商榷的问题,比如,我们将如何应对气候变化的挑战?如果美国退出全球气候协定,应该怎么办?等等。美国方面,经济表现相当不错,但这受益于去年的大规模减税政策,随着这一刺激作用的消退,我们普遍预测经济增长会放慢速度。同时,我们也确实有相当大的主权债务正在积累中。美国不可能永远保持现在的做法,中国也是一样。所以我想这是一个好坏参半的政策,它主要得益于相当强劲的经济增长,至少在特朗普近两年的执政期间是这样,但多数人的观点是,接下来的几年里,他可能会遇到更大的经济阻力。

He's not a multilateral store, sure. So he's not going to be helpful with that. But at least changing the kind of rules of the game in such a way that, you know, there's a balance of benefits and costs among the parties. There's a lot of open questions. I mean, how really are we going to get on with the climate change challenge if the united states pulls out of it, then and so on. On the American side, the economy is doing pretty well, but it's benefited a lot from a big fiscal stimulus. That's going to wfall off and we may most of the forecast are we're going to slow down and we do have a fairly large pile of sovereign debt building up in the economy. You know, you can't do that forever. I mean that's true in China, and that's true in the united states. So I think it's a mixed record, but it's had the benefit of a pretty strong economy, and it may run into some slightly greater head winds as we go into the next couple of years.

见闻特约记者胡刚:我们知道,全球化和科技浪潮让10%的精英受益,而后50%的人并没有得到好处。事实上,日益扩大的贫富差距一直是全球民粹主义的源头,不仅是美国,在其他国家也是这样。那么您如何看待逆全球化?如果说全球化造成了巨大的贫富差距,那么逆全球化会改变这一点吗?

You know the globalization or the technology has really benefited the top ten and the bottom fifty have not really benefited anywhere. In fact, wide wealth gap has been the source of populism globally, not only in united states, this is in everywhere. How do you see the deglobalization? If globalization causes a wide any of the wealth gap, does the deglobalization change that?

Spence:不一定,部分原因是技术的影响越来越重要。人工智能参与了越来越多的经济活动,甚至在某些自动化的工作上已经取代了人类。这意味着,这些由深度学习算法实现的技术可以让人们变得更有效率。用医生来举例,他们可能需要读大量的医学和生物医学文献,但如果有了合适的人工智能助理,它们可以帮助医生整理、筛选最重要的文件,大大减少实际的工作量。

Not necessarily. It's partly because you have the technology influence and the technology is getting more and more powerful. So with various versions of artificial intelligence, you've increased the scope of activities, if not hold jobs that are susceptible to some version of automation. It's also susceptible to making people much more productive because you have digital assistance, you know, that are enabled by these deep learning algorithms. Take doctors for example, there's a massive literature in medicine and biomedical science that doctors probably should read. But how are they going to do that? With the right kind of digital assistant, you can have somebody sort through it and say 'this week these are the four things you really need to read'.

所以我认为,在这个经济等式中,我们对科技发展带来失业的讨论已经过多地超过了对科技发展提高经济生产率的讨论。比如,我的助手就是一个计算机系统,它帮助我更有效率,这是一种互补,而不是替代。这也就是我们要做的,虽然我们解决社会不平等的方法不太完美,但我们必须努力朝这方面推进,这也是实施国际合作的一个先决条件。

So I think , the job in the developed countries, the job loss side of this equation, has been talked about more than the productivity increasing. My buddy here, you know, which happens to be a computer system. It’s going make me for more productive and it's more complementary rather than substitute. So I think that's where we're going. My personal view is that there are ways to deal with imperfectly. Admittedly, there are ways to deal with the inequality aspects of the growth patterns we've seen and that you have to get on with doing that is a kind of prerequisite for being able to cooperate internationally.

再举个例子,法国总统马克龙提出对汽油增税,也就是碳排放税。这个税负并不是很重,但它引发了大规模的抗议,甚至危害到政府的稳定。当我们处理诸如气候变化这样不得不处理的问题时,就会得到这样的社会反响。“黄背心”们说,他们在月中就把整月的钱都花光了,所以必须先解决这个问题,才能继续处理一些更长期的具有挑战性的问题。这意味着我们必须在国民素质上投入更多的成本去进行高质量的培训和再培训,必须重新分配收入和财富,这样人们才可能做出转变。

So let me give you an example. France president Macron france introduced, a tax or an incremental tax on on gasoline. That was supposed to be a carbon tax. You know, it wasn't a lot, right? It was a mighty growing over time, and it triggered this massive protest, but now threatens the stability of his government. I think if we try to get on with some of the things that are required to deal with, like climate change, we're going get this reaction. We got it from the people I run out of money halfway through the month is what the yellow jackets are saying exactly. You know, we've got to deal with that first before I’m on board dealing with these sort of longer more challenging issues based on scientific forecasts and stuff. Nobody has a perfect, sort of map for that, but it seems pretty clear: you have to invest even more in people over a long period of life. You have to have real and very high quality training and retraining options, for them and other institutions that support it. And you have to redistribute income and wealth so that people have the resources to make these transitions.

(法国总统马克龙访问地方城市 遭“黄背心”示威反对)

所以我并不完全悲观,因为还有很多工作要做,一旦我们做不到,那么反精英主义、民粹主义都会削弱国际合作与平衡的能力。

So I’m not totally pessimistic, but we've got a lot of work to do. And I think if we don't get it done, we'll continue to see, anti-elitist, you know, anti-established parties, rising nationalism, populism, sometimes undercutting the ability to cooperate trade off.

人们之所以担心社会保障体系,是因为当它走到极端时会产生负面的刺激。一个平衡的观点是:社会对每个人负有责任,社会资源应该为个人提供一系列机会从而提高他的生产力;同时,每个人身上也有责任,必须把这些责任具体化,单方面来看这个问题是无意义的。

There's a reason why people thought in social security systems, you know, it carried to an extreme would have adverse effects on incentives and their debates goes on. A balanced view is yes, society owes you, the resources to have reasonably, a reasonable set of opportunities to be productive, to work, to get, to contribute, to be creative and so on. And so I think in designing this, we're going have to kind of flesh these things out, and the one sided versions of it don't really sort of quite passed muster.

总而言之,我不认为有完美的解决收入不平等的方案,但是有很多处理方法,比如在不影响就业的情况下对富人征税。贫富差距在全世界都十分严重,包括美国。现在必须重新定义社会规则才能改变这一点,但我们未必能做到,因为在我们的政治体系里,金钱是非常重要的一部分,富人阶级是不会赞成重新分配财富的。而无法重新分配财富的代价将是经济、政治和社会两极分化进一步加剧,随后会出现僵局,治理结构不稳定,政策选择的余地不多,失去长远的眼光是致命的。

I think there are not perfect answers, but there are ways to go about this that you can tax wealth, right? Without hurting employment. The wealth inequality in some places, including here, is really quite extreme. Now you have to reset the kind of social contract in order to do it, and it's not clear we're going be able to do it. You know, we have a political system in which money is a very powerful part of the equation. So we may not be able to get there, but I think the cost of not getting there is rising economic, political, and social polarization. And then you get gridlock, you get instability in the governance structures, you get poor policy choices, you lose the long time horizon, and that's fatal.

所以我们应该遵循一个更广泛的原则:如果想要以合作的方式解决一些问题,首先要做的就是通过价值观和文化,通过自顶向下和自底向上的努力找到一种方法,使增长模式符合“包容性”的定义,能让人们对不平等的接受程度达到广义范围内的共识。

So I think what we're learning is that a more general principle, you know, that if you want to solve a whole lot of problems in a cooperative manner, the first thing you have to do is find a way to, through values, through culture, through a combination of top down and bottom up efforts. You have to find a way to make these growth patterns meet some definition of inclusive even if people don't agree on exactly how much inequality is okay and not.

见闻特约记者胡刚:也就是说,您认为即使一些国家之间会因此而产生冲突,我们也必须改变增长模式和分配模式?

You mean that even among the countries, there's going to be conflict, we have to change the growth pattern, and we have to probably change the distribution pattern.

Spence:是的,人们现在怀疑存在某种资本主义危机,亚洲正在进行一场关于所谓的西方模式是否会崩溃的讨论,这很合理,但我的观点是,我们也许应该换个方向思考,资本主义从来不是,也不会是市场和私人部门财产之间的运作关系。私人投资从来都不能解决一切问题,总是需要有一个合适的政府来公开对价值作出评估。资本主义本身是两个体系的结合,我们需要找到一个前进的方向,需要有能力、有想法、有创造力的人才。

Yes. There's some kind of crisis of capitalism. There's a real discussion going on in asia about whether the western so called western model isn't falling apart. That's perfectly reasonable. But my view is that the premise that the start is wrong ,capitalism is not now and never a kind of markets and private sector property. And private investment was never meant to solve all the problems by itself and always had a proper government to make public expression of values and stuff, in the best circstances is working partner.

喊话马云:我们真的足够理解经济数字化吗?

见闻特约记者胡刚:中国向前发展还会面临很多挑战,如果让您来选一些想和中国的学者共同探讨的问题,您认为什么话题最令您感兴趣?

China is going forward, and there are many challenges and topics to talk about. If you were to look at certain topic that you wanted to really dig deep into it and then had a panel talk with some chinese scholars, what would that topic be and how would you go about it?

Spence:第一,我想和中国的朋友们谈谈平衡的问题。中国的定位和一些西方国家是不同的。中国的政府仍然拥有巨大的资产负债表,集中持有企业部门的一部分控制权,同时,中国政府也在进行混合所有制的试验。所以我想知道中国将如何在这两者间达到平衡:一方面拥有一定程度的社会凝聚力和控制力,以防止私人市场利用信息缺口中的漏洞,另一方面又能充分发挥企业的活力和创新能力。

The first one I pick is i'd wanna talk with my chinese colleagues and friends about this balancing act. China is positioned itself differently from some of the western countries in terms of the role of the government control. You have a government that still has a very big balance sheet. They've chosen to hold that those assets in the form of concentrated ownership of a subset of the corporate sector. Meanwhile they are experimenting around with cross ownership of assets and other things. So what would like to do is sit down with people who thought deeply about this and this balance, what I call balancing act. So the balancing act as you want to have a degree of social cohesion and control and you don't want a bunch of people flying around. On the other hand, you want a dynamic, innovative company because it's pretty.

中国政策制定的特点是非常擅于进行中期修正,所谓的“擅于”并不意味着每次制定政策都是正确的,而指的是可以在错过预期的目标后将政策移回正确的方向。我认为探寻这种平衡是一个真正的挑战,我对此很感兴趣,因为美国可能也需要开始运用这种框架。

In the system, China's policy making process is pretty good at making, what I call mid course corrections, that we don't get everything right every time, but what they're really good at is responding when they kind of missed the target event and moved it back in the right direction. But I think this balancing act is a real challenge. And I’m interested in it because I think we're going have to get into that business too. But I think this balancing act is a real challenge. And I’m interested in it because I think we're going have to get into that business too.

我所好奇的另一个问题是,马云在杭州创办了一个研究院,致力于推动经济数字化的研究。我想知道,我们真的能够理解经济数字化吗?机会在哪里?挑战又是什么?研究这个是很正确的,我们现在的所有经济活动几乎都建立在数字化平台的基础之上,中国在社交媒体、互联网产业、移动支付和互联网金融等方面的经验非常重要,也非常值得拿出来和全世界分享。

The other discussion I would like to have, is Jack Ma starting an academy in hangzhou to promote research on how economies become digital. And and I'm intrested in can we really understand this? You know, what are the opportunities? What are the challenges? And I at the insight, I think is correct, which is all of our economies are starting to be built on digital plan, you know, not platforms in the technical sense, but foundations. I think there's the chinese experience with other social media economy, and mobile payments and stuff is actually pretty important set of experiences to understand and share.

(6月26日罗汉堂在杭州正式成立,罗汉堂是的专门研究人类未来问题的机构,将会深度挖掘面向未来的问题如何更好的服务人类)

像阿里巴巴这样的平台有着神奇的、包容性的生产增长模式,比如说,把那些似乎永远不会开一家像样店铺的人们以零售商的身份带入到经济中来。有了这样一家店,就有了更多的可能——南方的一个小镇成为了中国家具制造中心——这样一些令人印象深刻的轶事,就是数字技术促进包容性增长的一个很好体现。

And I think they're about to produce, you know some early reports that docent this is that the growth patterns that come out of these relatively open platform standard ecosystems of the type that have developed in China, not just Alibaba and financial, but produce growth patterns that have very impressive inclusive these characteristics. You know bringing people that you know aren't really going to have decent retail stores into the economy. You know making it possible for there's this store this some of this is anecdotes but they're impressive. A little town in the south that becomes one of the furniture making centers in China. This is digital technology in one aspect promoting inclusive growth patterns.

我想讨论的第二个问题是,中国的这些经验和教训该如何应用到其他国家特别是发展中国家,因为它们大多不像中国这么庞大、技术先进、拥有高速的互联网,有的国家可能也没有移动支付系统,通过短信等方式来进行支付,他们更不会从中发展得到人工智能。

And the second thing i'd like to know is how what does it take to apply the lessons of this and the opportunities in other countries, especially developing countries. So not all of them are as big and technologically advanced as China. I don't know if you need a mobile payment system where you have relatively high speed internet connection, mobile internet connection. I know there's payment systems that are based on text messages and stuff in other parts of where the technology isn't as advanced the mobile technology, but you probably don't get the artificial intelligence out of that.

所以,中国是否需要云计算系统?是否知道在某一阶段需要多大的容量?以非洲为例,是否可以建立一种公用系统,从而解决一些各个国家自身缺少足够财力去处理的问题?这些也是我想知道的。

So one of the things I hope comes out of that is that do you need a cloud computing system? Or at what stage with what volume do you need it? Is there an argent, say in africa for pushing these things, but having some general purpose utilities that do some of the things that are probably too expensive for individual countries to do? So I'd like to see it to be part of a discussion of that.

*本文作者华尔街见闻路琰、高姝睿,依据访谈内容编纂而成。

*原《经济百谈》栏目2019年将全新升级为《尖峰对话》,欢迎继续关注。

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