尖峰对话 | 斯蒂芬·罗奇:中国人未来养老,不能指望房子,也不能指望孩子(附英文原版)(上篇)

来源: 尖峰对话
在一个日渐老龄化的社会,退休后怎么保障医疗和养老,日本栽过的坑,给中国插了路标。

*本次访谈由华尔街见闻与当代经济学基金会共同发起,由见闻特约记者李勤习采访完成。

多生小孩,但别指望他们养老。

在分析当下最棘手的几个挑战时,斯蒂芬.罗奇把日本拎出来做了分析——这是他除了中国外,研究最透彻的亚洲国家——前车之鉴在那儿摆着呢,中国能做的就是赶早不赶晚,鼓励生育,延迟退休,抓紧完善全民社保。

日本在前面摔过坑,但也趟出了路,中国要做的就很简单,只需要绕开坑,选能走通的路就可以了。

虽然已卸任摩根士丹利首席经济学家多年,斯蒂芬.罗奇仍然被看作是华尔街最具影响力的学者之一,也被认为是最理解中国故事的人。在执教耶鲁期间,他以“未来中国”为主题,开设了一门课程。

罗奇对中国的深度接触始于1997年亚洲金融危机。彼时罗奇正担任摩根士丹利的首席经济学家,但大摩当时对亚洲的预测基本全部失效,被看好的经济体接连陷入泥潭,唯有中国挺立不倒。

为什么是中国?这个国家发生了什么?未来又会怎样?摩根士丹利几乎一无所知。

从那时起,罗奇开始将研究重心从美国经济转向了中国。他每个月飞两次中国,同中国政府官员和企业家们见面。

了解中国的发展情况和政策方向后,罗奇在自己的研究文章中判断:亚洲金融危机后,中国将崛起成为泛区域经济中的潜在新领袖。这篇文章发表在英国《金融时报》上,引起了中国政府高层的关注,打开了罗奇和中国政府高层交流的契机。

这些交流逐渐扩展到中国经济领域最重要的人物:国务院前总理朱镕基、财政部前部长项怀诚、人民银行前行长周小川,以及现任中国银行保险监督管理委员会主席郭树清。

与这些高级官员的直接交流,令罗奇对中国宏观和战略有了更清晰的理解和思考,过去20多年里,他在华尔街树立了“最懂中国”的声望和地位。

在本次访谈中,他切入了几个关注最多的问题:养老,医疗,私营企业以及中国金融服务逐步开放,也直言不讳地给出了建议和评估。

中国养老和医疗体系应引入私募资金

见闻特约记者李勤习您曾在书中提到,消费者是未来中国经济发展的核心。为了刺激消费,当务之急似乎是解决养老和医疗保健问题。您认为私募资本在其中能发挥怎样的作用?“养老金融”是否会成为下一个前沿研究课题?

In your book, you mentioned “ Chinese consumers” are the centerpiece of the Next China. In order to stimulate consumption, it seems that the addressing issue of retirement and medical care is a crucial and critical and very urgent task that China’s one of the priorities now.Sowhat do you think the private capitalcan do in this regards?And can we say that the research issues like “health care financing” will be the next frontier research topics?

罗奇:我认为私募市场和企业可以大力协助解决这一问题。近年来,中国政府关注的焦点一直是扩大社保或全民医保覆盖面的广度,而不是公民福利的深度,当出现就医或退休问题时,该体系并不能满足人们的需要,背后实际上是比较严重的资金问题。我认为政府已经意识到需要通过公民剩余储蓄来提供资金来源,但这个问题还存在另一方面,即需要提出一个区域解决方案,在城市和农村地区普及具备现代化医疗技术及服务条件的医院和诊所,这无疑是当今中国需要关注的重点。

I think there are a lot ofprivate marketand private companies can do to help address this safety issue.The system’s focused in recent years by the Chinese government has been to expand its enrollment in social security or nationwide health but not to deepen its benefits. They system does not pay enough benefits to Chinese people when they need to go to the hospital and they think about retirement, there is a big funding issue I think the government has the awareness of its all to provide ample sources of funding through its surplus savings. But there is another aspect of the safety net issue, it is to provide sector’s solutions. That’s the development of modern technology-equipped health care service hospital clinics in urban and rural areas, certainly needs considerable focus in China today.

其中,建立农村医疗保健系统是在我看来需要格外重视的。当前中国新基础设施中一大缺点是迫使农村家庭进城就医——现代化基础设施鼓励家庭迁往城市发展,这影响了农村地区对卫生服务的需求。我十分看好中国的基础设施,但不可忽视的是中国需要在农村地区建立更多现代化诊所,来改善整体的医疗系统。

One of the areas that I think a lot about is the need to focus more on rural healthcare delivery systems.One of the unfortunate disadvantages of your new infrastructure enables rural families to go to the city for healthcare. The demand for health services in rural areas suffers because of the modernized infrastructure that encourages the families to go to the cities.I’m a big fan and very positive about infrastructure built in your country, but you can’t neglect having modern clinics in rural centers. Special attention needs to be given to that and your hospital systems are improving but there is a lot needed to be done.

配图:河北邯郸:“医养结合”打造健康养老新模式

最后,我们知道,中国还面临着老龄化问题,而且正在不断恶化中,随之而来的是辅助生活和特殊护理等问题。在中国的传统观念里,子女有赡养老人的义务,但这在现代社会中是不可持续的。老年人的医疗需求需要得到特别关注,这对未来15-20年的人口趋势至关重要。

Finally, everyone knows you have a very serious and very rapidly aging problem. With the aging comes to need for assisted living, special care for seniors. You have a strong culture that the families take care of the elderly members but that is not a sustainable culture for a modern society. Special attention needs to be given to the medical needs of the elderly generation which is given your demographical trend a critical importance over the next 15-20 years.

见闻特约记者李勤习中国有一种传统思想就是“以房养老”。您如何看待将房产用于医疗保健?

In China we have an old traditional thinking, we always want to keep our house because we want to raise ourselves by our house. How do you think to use the house to provide for healthcare?

罗奇:我认为这是传统与现代社会老年人医疗保健要求之间的冲突。随着年龄的增长,你必须去改变生活方式。现在有一种新的权衡取舍在挑战历史传统,想要找到合适的解决方案并非易事。这又回到我刚才所提到的养老支持的话题上来,它需要政府从社会保障和养老金方面获得更多资金,还需要医疗保健制度的福利支撑。如果现在政府将注意力从社保缴纳的数量转移到社会福利的质量上,这将有助于解决这个重要问题。

I think it is conflict between the traditions and requirements of healthcare for elderly in a modern system. Nobody wants to leave their home, but aging occurs and it demands lifestyle changes as you get older. There are the new type of trade-offs challenge these historical traditions and the answer is not an easy one. It just goes back to the point I made earlier that the support for elderly, it needs to greater funding by the government both from the point of social security and pension but also the benefits that is paid out by the healthcare system. If the government were to shift its focus now from the quantity of enrollment to the quality of the benefits, that would be helpful to address the very important question you have raised.

在不同的体制下,我们面临的问题都是相同的。日本可以为中国提供应对快速老龄化的实践经验,它现在是世界上人口老龄化最严重的国家,老年抚养比达到65%,即老年人口与劳动年龄人口的比例为0.65。中国与日本的发展方向也是一致的,只是日本较中国领先了20年。因此,日本在应对老龄化问题方面可以学习借鉴。

We are all dealing with the same issues with different systems. The laboratory for dealing with rapidly aging society is Japan. Japan has the oldest population in the world right now. If you look at the demographic profile of old age dependency ratio, the ratio of65% of the older to the working age population.Japan looks like China except it’s about 20 years ahead. China is going the same direction as Japan. So japan is ahead of focusing a lot on addressing its elderly issues.

配图:日本“奶奶天团”KBG48走红网络 平均年龄84岁

我在耶鲁开设的一门课上,曾带着学生们做了详尽的比较,不仅仅是从人口统计学的角度来看,还包括货币和债务等其他特征视角。但从人口统计学的角度来看,如果中国再不完善新生人口和退休年龄政策,那么20年后中国可能会重蹈日本覆辙。此外我还查阅了联合国的人口统计数据。鉴于近年来计划生育政策发生了变化,如果一个家庭平均每年生育一个或多个孩子,那么还有可能扭转局势。如果提高退休年龄,比如从65岁延迟到70岁,也有助于提高中国公民的生活质量,避免走上日本老路。

In the class I teach in Yale, I took students through this comparison in great detail. I do this not just from the standpoint of demographics but other characteristics such as currency and debt. But from the standpoint of demographics, the characteristics in Japan are very similar to where China is headed, not today, but 20 years from now, if China does nothing in terms of addressing its child birth and retirement age characteristics. It will look like Japan. So I run some stimulations through the demographical data of UN. If you expand the family size by literally on average half a child or more per year, which seems very feasible to me given a shift occurred in the family planning the one child policy in recent years. If you raise the retirement age, it’s very important from say 65 to 70, which is very consistent with the improved lifestyles or survival rate of Chinese citizens. That could make real differences in avoiding the Japanese’s type of outcome for China.

见闻特约记者李勤习很多中国企业选择在海外资本市场上市并向全球投资者募集资金。那么您是否曾研究过全球资本市场的“中国概念”?其产业结构总体上有哪些特点?您认为中国投行、金融机构会面临哪些挑战?

The number and scale of Chinese enterprises that have listed in the overseas capital markets and raised corporate development funds to global investors are growing.Have you ever observed and studied the “China concept” in the global capital markets?What are the characteristics of its industrial structure on the whole? What kind of challenges do you think that Chinese local investing banks, securities, and others will face?

配图:2014年9月19日,阿里巴巴集团在纽交所正式挂牌交易

罗奇:过去20年,中国已经融入了全球资本市场,成为资本的来源之一。这一体系强制中国企业使用西方的公司治理模式,在全球资本市场上筹集资金。21世纪初,中金公司(CICC)在许多中国大型企业的谈判中起到领导作用,中国政府更愿意承担较大风险,将企业所有权结构从国有转向以市场为基础的产业结构。

China, over the last, I say, 20 years, has embraced global capital market. It’s source of capital.And as a system that forces western style corporate governance on Chinese enterprises to raise that capital in global capital markets.I was very involved with a joint venture, CICC, that played a leadership role in negotiating for a lot of large Chinese companies in the 2000s.The government has more willing to take considerable risks in transforming the ownership structure, from state-owned to more of a market-based industrial structure.

中国政府在2013年十八大会议上承诺国有企业与私营企业之间的平衡,我观察到政府非常重视国有企业改革,特别是在去年。我认为经过35年的努力,国企已成为中国经济极具影响力的一方面,但同时也削弱了私营部门的重要性。这就是发展所带来的负面问题。我花了很多时间研究1999年日本在挽救资不抵债的公司时遇到的麻烦,那些被挽救的公司后来却成了僵尸企业,中国现在也存在着同样的风险。

Particularly in the last year,the government has placed a great deal of emphasis on state-owned enterprises and the reforms that were promised in the Third Plenary of 18th National Congress in November 2013.The state actually, I think, returned as a very powerful aspect of Chinese economy after 35 years’ of, but diminish the importance of the private sector has taken on.So that’s the worrisome of the development. I spent a lot of time looking at how Japan got the trouble by supporting insolvent Japanese corporations in the 1999s. Then they became zombies, the walking dead. There’s a risk of that in China right now. That’s a warning.

说到投资公司,在中国的投行里,中金公司一直是中国资本市场的领导者,但现在它的龙头地位已经面临了更多竞争者的挑战。我认为一家全球投资银行需要广泛的能力,包括全球分销等,中国公司很难获得这些能力。摩根士丹利在世界范围内构建了制度,这一过程代价昂贵,我不知道中国国内证券公司能否做到这一点。

As for investing banks, CICC was the market leader in capital market activities in China for a long time. Because it was the only bank.But now there are competitors. That makes CICC have to work hard to maintain its market share.I think global investing banks, requires broad capabilities, including distribution around the world. That’s gonna be very difficult for Chinese companies to acquire.Morgan Stanley had a deal out institutional plans all over the world. It is very expensive thing to do. I don’t know if Chinese domestic securities forms are in the position of what they could have done there.

*未完待续,欢迎关注下篇尖峰对话 | 斯蒂芬·罗奇:我必须站出来说句公道话 美国贸易赤字不怪中国(下篇)

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